Global "Sweet Crisis"! The price of cocoa beans has soared, making chocolate unaffordable?

Recently, the futures price of cocoa beans, an important raw material for chocolate, has been rising.

The reporter consulted the data and found that after continuously breaking through the $7,000/ton, $8,000/ton, and $9,000/ton mark in March this year, U.S. cocoa bean futures reached a record high of $10,075/ton on March 26. After falling slightly, currently fluctuating around the level of US$9,700 per ton, with an increase of more than 132% this year. London cocoa bean futures also hit new highs repeatedly, reaching a peak of 8,672 pounds per ton on March 26, a record high. Comparing prices for the same period in 2023, U.S. cocoa bean futures prices have increased by more than 230%, while London cocoa bean futures have increased by 283%, far exceeding the increase in gold prices over the same period.

At the same time, sugar is another major raw material for chocolate processing, and its price changes also have a great impact on the price of chocolate. Data shows that U.S. sugar futures have fallen from a high of 28 cents/pound in November 2023 to the current 22.5 cents/pound. However, this downward trend may have cooled somewhat. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations mentioned in a report on March 8: "The FAO sugar price index averaged 140.8 points in February, an increase of 3.2% from January, rising for the second consecutive month, and an increase of 12.5% from the same period last year. "Prolonged below-average rainfall will have an impact on Brazil's production next season, exacerbating seasonal upward pressure. In addition, production in two major exporting countries, Thailand and India, is forecast to be lower, leading to higher prices."

Unfavorable climatic conditions trigger decline in cocoa production

Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are known to account for more than 60 per cent of global cocoa powder production, and with the addition of two countries, Cameroon and Nigeria, four 

countries account for more than 75 per cent of global cocoa powder production. ‘Unlike other bulk agricultural products, cocoa beans have a high concentration of origin and are 

therefore more  susceptible to climate change in specific regions.’ Dr Ni, a lecturer at the School of Public Health at Xinjiang Medical University who is currently researching food 

health at Xi'an  Jiaotong  University, told reporters. 2023 began at the end of the year by the impact of the El Niño effect, the largest producer of cocoa beans in Côte d'Ivoire, 

precipitation is significantly lower  the African agricultural ‘devil dry hot winds’ continue to exacerbate the drought level of the cocoa bean production areas. The ‘devil's hot and 

dry winds’ in African agriculture continue  to exacerbate drought levels in cocoa bean-producing areas. According to the data, in Côte d'Ivoire's capital Yamoussoukro, for example, 

the total rainfall in December 2023 was 2.5mm, while  in January this year the total was only 0.3mm, and in February there were only four days of rainfall. This phenomenon did not 

improve until March, when the number of rainy days in Yamoussoukro  reached 19, with the total rainfall picking up to 36.4mm. ‘Typically, a dry period for cocoa bean cultivation 

should not last more than three months, and the ideal conditions require even rainfall  throughout the year. At the same time, a minimum of 1,500mm of annual rainfall is required, 

however, this condition was not met last year in many cocoa-producing areas in Africa.’ Dr Ni explains.

The ICCO's Quarterly Report on Cocoa Bean Statistics of 29 February 2024 states that adverse weather conditions and disease are expected to lead to a significant decline in cocoa 

bean production  in key countries, and in particular, old-growth yields in these countries will continue to be low. This could affect processor operations as raw material costs increase. 

According to the report, global  cocoa supply is projected to decline by 11% to 4.449 million tonnes in 2023 and 2024 compared to 2022 and 2023. Global cocoa demand is expected 

to decrease by 5% to 4.779 million tonnes.