The coffee market opened trading on Wednesday (15) with mixed performance on international exchanges, reflecting technical adjustments and fundamentals directly linked to Brazil. While Arabica is trading slightly lower in New York, Robusta is rising in London, supported by concerns over short-term coffee availability.

Fundamentals remain centered on the Brazilian market. Cecafé data show that cumulative exports for the 2025/26 crop year totaled 29.09 million bags between July and March, a 21.2% decline compared to the same period of the previous season, when 36.91 million bags were shipped. This is the lowest volume for the period since 2022/23.

Also according to Cecafé, in March 2026, Brazil exported 3.04 million bags, up 15.4% from February, when shipments totaled 2.63 million. Despite the monthly recovery, the environment remains restrictive, with lower production in the 2025/26 crop and historically low domestic stocks limiting the pace of foreign sales.

The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) notes that many producers already have little coffee available from the current crop and, buoyed by the high prices obtained throughout the season, show no rush to sell. This behavior reduces immediate supply and helps support Robusta prices, even as Arabica undergoes a technical correction.

According to Cepea, this pattern of subdued exports is expected to persist until the 2026/27 harvest gains momentum, which is anticipated to occur more consistently starting in mid-May. Until then, the market is likely to remain sensitive to sales flows and conditions of the new crop.

For Brazilian producers, the opening reinforces a scenario of prices still supported by tight supply, but with occasional fluctuations. Arabica is giving back some of its recent gains, while Robusta continues to find support in limited availability and a cautious marketing stance in Brazil.

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